The Afghan Government and Taliban have been doing peace talks in Doha (Qatar). The chances of success of such and other peace talks will increase tremendously if India issues a warning that it will help the GoA militarily in case Taliban do not arrive at a peaceful settlement and continue to use force to gain more territories in Afghanistan. It has become necessary because (as Afghan envoy to India also said https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/afghanistan-counting-on-indian-military-assistance-if-taliban-talks-fail-2485799 ) that GoA was surprised that instead of utilizing the opportunity of US-withdrawal from Afghanistan for peaceful settlement, the Taliban took wrong advantage by way of acquiring more territories through force.
At the same time the wrong policy of the GoA to use militia of the people to counter Taliban is unethically putting martial burden on civilians against Taliban (as reported at https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/afghan-militias-forced-to-fight-taliban-blame-americas-abandonment ). In this report it is rightly said that – “[It is also unclear if the militias can make a real impact on the battlefield. If the Afghan security forces, with all of the equipment and supplies that they have been given, and funding from the United States over the years, can’t hold off the Taliban, how is it that these resistance fighters are supposed to do that?]”.
In view of the above mentioned it is imperative that India prepares itself to help the GoA militarily (even with boots on ground and by not merely supplying military equipment, etc like helicopters and training to military personnel like pilots etc to the GoA as wrongly suggested by Afghan envoy in said interview to NDTV). It is precisely in this background that the article by Amjad Ayub Mirza in a prominent newspaper of India ‘The Statesman’ (
https://www.thestatesman.com/opinion/talibans-next-stop-kabul-kashmir-kerala-1502982817.html ) should be taken, in which Mirza advices the following to Government of India (GoI), to the GoA and to others :-
(i)- To arm every Afghan citizen to fight the Taliban.
(ii)- Given the evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in providing logistic and strategic support to the Taliban against the legitimate GoA, Ghani should declare war on Pakistan without further delay and send troops into both KPK and Balochistan simultaneously declaring the Durand line a falsely divide and call for the reunification of the forcefully separated Pashtun people.
(iii)- The ‘Pashtun Tahafuz Movement’ (PTM) in KPK should fight for freedom from Pakistan by joining the Afghan armies in the same way that the Pakistan army is collaborating with the Taliban. The ‘Baloch liberation forces’ (BLF) should also join the extended war against Pakistani military occupation.
(iv)- Because Pakistan-sponsored games being played by the Taliban will not stop at Kabul and that their next stop will be Kashmir and Kerala and country-wide acts of jihadi terrorism, hence in a pincer movement, both India and Afghanistan should confront Pakistan.
No doubt India faces serious problems due to ongoing civil war in Afghanistan also in view of the fact that Russia (along with Afghan-border sharing Central Asian countries), Pakistan and Iran are already in Chinese camp and after reported assurance by Taliban to protect & further every Chinese interest in Afghanistan the ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’ has accepted ‘Islamic democracy’ (Sharia-cracy) of Taliban. Moreover in case India is perceived by China in any way going against Chinese interests then China has formidable potential to let & help Pakistan to snatch Kashmir & Ladakh militarily from India with the help of Taliban. Especially given the fact that Pak military is already pining to take revenge against India about 1971 and may take-over Pak-government through coup with tacit support of China by taking excuse of present civil war in Afghanistan and its fall-out like terrorist activities (by, out of tradition, blaming it on India) in Pakistan including detrimental to Chinese interests (CPEC etc ) in Pakistan.
But the remedy suggested by Mirza in said ‘The Statesman’ article will not serve the purpose rather will create more problems because not only it has overstated the threats to India in Kerala and in rest of India by militant Jihadis in India (who, if at all, are not considerable in numbers) and it does not take into consideration the Chinese factor but it is also not on the right side of international / UN laws. Therefore India should:-
(1)- First neutralize China as given below:-
(i)- The Indo-China border dispute is legal (including Tibet issue) unlike the dispute with Pakistan, which is political. Hence it can easily be resolved by the ‘UN Judicial Commission’ which China can’t refuse being a permanent member of the UN. If China opposes it through veto etc then India should persuade the USA & other permanent members to dissolve the UN and launch another world body (in the interest of ‘liberal Western democracy’ against ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’).
(ii)- India should immediately come out of QUAD and tell the USA, Japan and Australia that because maritime dispute resolution is the responsibility of the UN and not of its individual member country, hence India should not be expected to take this global responsibility.
(iii)- The way Corona (from China as alleged by India and other countries including the USA) and its second wave has devastated India, the UN should be moved by India to constitute an ‘UN Inquiry Commission’ not only for getting investigated from where Coronavirus originated and how it spread in rest of the world by acts of commission & omission of various governments but also to suggest protocols & SOPs to be followed in future so that such pandemic (or bio-war) does not take place (There is a UN regime for stopping nuclear proliferation similarly there should be a UN regime to regulate laboratories all over the world whichever deals with such viruses).
(2)- Take territorial access to Afghanistan by putting Pakistan at its proper place by :-
(i)- Moving the UNSC (with time ultimatum) to ensure that there should be plebiscite in united J&K [as mandated not only by 1948 UN resolution but also by 1947 Instrument of Accession (IoA) of J&K to India by getting united J&K free from outsiders] and plebiscite in Balochistan too (who’s IoA was taken in 1948 by Pakistan under military pressure despite contrary resolution by Parliament / Jirga of Balochistan). India should tell the UNSC that if the process of these plebiscites are not started within a period of (say) three months then India reserves the right (as per UN laws) to safeguard its security interests and will enter militarily in Afghanistan through Indian territory of United J&K (including PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan).
(ii)- Moving the UNSC to ensure that there is ‘dual-citizenship’ for about 80 million (about 20 % of present population of Pakistan and Bangladesh) forcibly displaced and descendants of such forcibly displaced Hindus / Sikhs (the UNSC should know that there was no provision of population transfer in ‘Indian Independence Act 1947’ and India has been a member of the UN since 1945 even before its independence in 1947). The UNSC should further ensure proper law & order in present Pakistan & Bangladesh for these Hindus (Punjabis, Bengalis and Sindhis) who will go over there (after dual-citizenship) in their motherland as their citizens either for living over there or for touring or for doing business over there or for purchasing properties over there (similarly for Muslims forcibly displaced from India).
[India should tell the UNSC that this illegal forced population transfer has thoroughly communalized the Indian subcontinent (also due to the fact that about 20% Hindu population was forced out from each of Pakistan & Bangladesh but Muslim population remained same rather increased little to about 15% in India and even more if illegal immigrants mainly from Bangladesh are taken into consideration). This illegal forced population transfer was the main cause of many military conflicts in this region in the past and will be for many more in future if not reversed, through dual-citizenship].
(iii)- India should invite Balochs to establish their Government in exile in India (in case the UNSC does not initiate said plebiscite in Balochistan) and then India can enter Afghanistan militarily through Balochistan too.
But India will not achieve anything militarily in Afghanistan unless :-
(A)- India achieves considerable economic progress (crucial for military power too, as has been the case with present impressive military power of China due to its impressive economic progress) and for this the GoI should recover the huge State-capital (Income tax) of Rs about 1,000 Lakh Crore (Trillion) from about one million fake farmers. as mentioned at https://english.newsnationtv.com/article/121125-news-nation-disclosure-on-blackmoney-kharabpati-farmers-take-agriculture-route-t.html and https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Prominent-people-hiding-taxable-income-Jaitley/articleshow/51408323.cms
(B)- India asks Afghanistan to adopt a secular constitution before providing military help (including Indian boots on ground) to Afghanistan because Islamic theocracy is the main cause of rise of militant Jihadis like Taliban and some others in Afghanistan.
( C)- India assumes the leadership of SAARC where its every member country (including Pakistan) may rest assured that they will get justice under the leadership of India.
It is hoped that India will not only issue warning to Taliban of military help to SECULAR Afghanistan, if peace talks fail but will also, as mentioned above, start preparing for military help to Afghanistan as per international / UN laws by taking the factors of China & territorial access to Afghanistan (through territories which are presently under illegal possession of Pakistan)
