Four developments have radically changed socio-economic-political-
– Prez Biden may be tempted to ignore – [the article by a US-think tank which says that in the election in the crucial State of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) the Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath (a Hindu nationalist demagogue) from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking a new term with a divisive electioneering strategy that pits minority groups against the majority. https://www.justsecurity.org/
Hijab row: Country heading towards civil war, Lalu attacks PM Modi etc etc ] – But Prez Biden will be wrong in his assessment (if he thinks that these warnings are nothing new and it wouldn’t create a civil war in India) because communal situation in India hence changed radically due to above mentioned four developments as explained below:-
(1)- If BJP loses election in U.P then as its record, it will try to retain power (not only in other States but at center too) by communal polarization. If BJP wins election in U.P. then opposition would say that elections were rigged through EVMs hence they will resort to formidable political agitations all across India,
(2)- Out of about 1.4 billion living in India, Muslims are more than 15 % that is about 250 million (including Muslim illegal immigrants as per BJP leaders) and about 80 % are Hindus, that is 1120 million. Among Hindus the majority is from Dalits (Schedule Castes, Schedule Tribes about 31 % of the Hindu population) and backward castes (about 43 % of the Hindu population) whereas upper castes of Hindus are merely 26 % https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
(3)- After 2014, the Hindutva forces led by the RSS / BJP came to power at center and in many States mainly on the ill-will towards Muslims (in addition to the mysterious Gujarat model about economy) but Hinduism has failed to provide economic relief to the majority of Indians (even to Hindus). It is evident from the still unresolved farmer’s grievances hence now anti-Muslim policy has also stopped providing political dividends to the BJP .The two thirds of India is fully or partly dependent on farm income and hundreds of thousand of farmers (mostly from SC, ST, backwards caste who are landowning and farm laborers) have committed suicide in the last few decades due to non-remunerative prices of farm produce hence farmers in India are interested in ‘Legally Enforceable Minimum Support Price’ (LEMSP) for which they agitated for over an year at Delhi borders too and even now they want LEMSP (after GoI has repealed controversial 3 farm laws in December 2021). Hence farmers have not only pledged communal harmony between Hindus and Muslims (https://www.news18.com/news/
(4)- In all the past communal riots, the Hindutva forces (which mainly represents the socio-economic interests of upper castes, the 26 % of the Hindu population) have mostly used the SC, ST and backwards castes (the 74 % of the Hindu population) against Muslims (as far as some liberal Hindus their lip service for the cause of secularism doesn’t matter). Which made the ratio of Muslims to Hindus about 1: 4.5 But after on-going farmers protest the situation has radically changed. Now this 74 % of Hindu population doesn’t want any communal riot against Muslim and in case any such communal riot happens then most of this 74 % of Hindu population will not support the Hindutva forces in massacring Muslims (unlike they massacred Muslims in 2002 in Modi’s Gujarat). Due to absence of support of even half of the SC, ST, backward castes to Hindutva forces, the ratio of Muslims to warring Hindus will be reduced to merely 1: 2.8 and it will be a situation where the beleaguered Muslims (in order to avoid their massacre) will certainly decide to take-on the Hindutva forces on ground (especially in view of the popular perception among Muslims that they ruled Hindus with the power of sword for many centuries and other factors as mentioned below).
(5)- In current situation in Pakistan- [where opposition is trying hard to dislodge Imran from the office of Prime Minister through no-confidence motion (Maryam says situation for no-trust move against PM Imran now ‘favourable’ ) and where Imran is already demoralized because his spiritual Guru (his wife Bushra Begum) has already removed the ‘ruhani’ support (despite denial of reports of Bushra Begum leaving Bani Gala https://en.dailypakistan.com.
(6)- In Afghanistan the Taliban government is still not settled because it has not been recognized by the world community therefore any opportunity for militant Jihad offered by a communal riots in India will be exploited by Taliban. Relation between India and Iran are already soured after India stopped importing oil from Iran under US-pressure hence in the present situation (when Iran is emboldened after Ukraine Crisis where China & Russia are seeking support of Iran against the USA & NATO) Iran can easily help at-least the Shia Muslims in India in case of a communal riot (and to what extent Iran can go to support Shia Jihadis is evident from Syria, Lebanon, Yemen etc). People may think that Muslim Bangladesh is friendly to India but when it comes to Hindus v/ s Muslims, Bangladesh is no better (as is evident from Bangladesh: ‘Over 3,600 attacks’ on Hindus since 2013, rights groups concerned ). In a nutshell Indian Muslims (with a said ratio of 1:2.8 against warring Hindus) will further get emboldened due to militant Jihadi support from neighboring Muslim countries.
(7)- One more fundamental change has come in India. All the political parties opposed to BJP (especially to its phenomenal rise to power by exploiting communal sentiments of Hindus particularly after the Babri-masjid episode) may like to see the Hindutva forces / BJP humbled and disciplined in case of any national level communal riots between Hindutva forces and Muslims. At the same time on home front Biden will have to be vigilant about the Indian diaspora. The tango between Hindutva forces and Republicans (when Howdy Modi happened in September 2019 at Houston and when communal riots took place in India’s capital Delhi in Prez Trump’s presence in March 2020) now may not be so much because the Republicans are no more in White House but Indian diaspora (which by and large supports Hindutva forces) is quite influential in the USA (not merely on Republicans but on Democrats too) and may play an objectionable & unethical part in any such communal riots in India.
(8)- The RSS / BJP government of Modi knows that without removing poverty from India through rapid economic progress it can’t retain power. Hence Hindutva forces have one more ‘reason’ to give-up democracy by taking the excuse of large scale communal unrest in India because it has experience of facing formidable opposition (in democracy) from farmers and other communities when it tried to bring land reforms, labor law reforms, 3 controversial farm laws (without which as per Modi government India can’t progress economically). Hence the global capital and India Inc will also join the Hindutva forces in finishing democracy in India.
(9)- It is precisely at this point that China comes into the picture. Emboldened by the Ukraine crisis, China sees an opportunity to defeat the USA in cold war II by ending ‘liberal Western democracy’ and by installing ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’ in the largest democracy India with a ready-made political model of replacing ‘Communist Party of China’ with RSS.
Therefore Prez Biden needs to be vigilant about the likelihood of (Post March 10 U.P. election) a civil war in India especially IF reservation-castes remain neutral between Hindutva forces and Muslims.
